this week Canes vs Landers - Landers 13 plus Tahs vs Chiefs - Chiefs 1-12 Blues vs Saders -Saders 13 plus
I am still processing my poor bets, the rebels surely should not lose by more than 17 points. Yet they played like warmed up shit on toast. And how did the saders score so many tries in wet conditions.
Landers 13+??? Nah can't see it. Even when we played them 2nd game into the season, in really poor form we only lost by a point. I'd wait until weather is more certain for that one. Chiefs "should" beat the Tahs by more than 13 but have a feeling they probably won't so agree there. Blues are pretty average out of all the NZ teams but they'll step up and fight against the Saders, I wouldn't necessarily expect a runaway from that one.
Was actually one of the better performances from the Chiefs in a while. Even against shittier opposition they've been pretty average of late so a positive there. Tahs defence was atrocious, Saders ran riot really.
Landers will crush them. They now have Naholo - he is worth about 10 points a game. That is a clinical statement and not a throwaway comment. He will get a try or an assist every game that a normal winger would not get. Saders will DESTROY the blues by 20 points. They have Nadolo back. Nadolo is the best wing in the world by some distance. Anything could happen in the Chiefs game. Probably Chiefs 13+ but surely the Tahs will bounce back somewhat and drink a cup of cement.
The only way the Hurricanes win is if they move Corey Jane to Full back - and change their strategy. BBarrett to do up and unders all night and corey jane to run through and catch them. I don't see the canes beating them by playing running rugby especially without NMS in the line up. If they had him then I would sway towards the Canes. In my mind games are won or lost by key players on both sides. Neutral players like Marshall for the canes simply have no impact on a game like this...it becomes a battle of the star players. And the highlanders star players will probably outperform the canes star players.
Traditionally games against the two are always full paced, no doubting that but as to a heap of tries - not so much. Even in neutral conditions like at Forsyth. Add in the Westpac conditions (whatever they may be) and things could get interesting. I see this one won up front personally. Either team has the players in the backline to open the game up but it'll be won in the forwards. I'm not sure if Christie and Coltman are still injured but if they are the Landers lose a little bit there. Canes need to target Sopoaga, make him crumble. He's a confidence player, if he crumbles early he'll cost the Landers the game - he's that kind of player. We need to start Laumape at 12 and Proctor at 13. Both solid on defence (unlike Aso) and should keep Fekitoa in line. Bring Haloholo on with 15 mins left to run riot with his footwork. Depending on the conditions I'd be inclined to go the opposite way and not kick as often BUT not just try and out run the Landers. The reason I say this is because even Jane has been mediocre under the high ball this year and Ben Smith wins that battle all night imo. We need to keep it in the forwards around the fringes up the middle of the park. I've noticed we gain a lot of metres when we have done this in the past but always opt to go wide 2 phases in. Not long enough imo. If Faddes is starting at 13, Proctor needs to exploit this just like he exploited the Lions' 13. Faddes needs to be controlled too when the Landers are on attack. I do feel both teams will get trapped into risky running rugby but it needs to be controlled. The Landers are stronger on defence but that can account for absolutely nothing if the Canes control the game. Actually that's what we need to do, rather than the Landers playing into our hands we need to play the cards ourselves. Traditionally not something we've done so I am swaying towards the Landers to win in a tight one/
Alex and Lukic and the others will have to accept my apologies for the delay. I can assure you they will be paid as soon as they PM their bank details. Please keep your slanders to yourself. And incidentally, recall our bet.
Yeah I will pick this apart when I have slept on it. If your forwards are better than the Landers then keep it in tight all night. I don't see running rugby beating this team. You tried running in last years grand final and that was with Nonu and Smith in your line up. Look how that ended up. Give Corey Jane a kick up the jacksie - show him some videos of himself circa 2011. Practice it (bombs) all Wednesday and Thursday. I don't like your point about rattling Sopoanga's cage. He is not a confidence player at all. Confidence players are erratic and don't turn up against good teams and bully lower grade teams like the Western Force. He also turned up in a test match in South Africa. I don't see the Cane's rattling him. Maybe his goal kicking - I could see that being fragile on a bad night if he starts badly. Good post btw!
Probably should have elaborated on the Sopoaga confidence thing. Like I said this game will be won up front first. If the Canes win that battle then Sopoaga/ the back line struggle, target Sopoaga more and we have the game. Confidence was probably the wrong wording but when he has a howler he has a massive howler. Only way I see that happening is by the above. Traditionally we haven't seen it in a lil while because the Landers pack/ Aaron Smith ensure he/ the back line get good ball. He's not quite at Carter's or even Cruden's level where he can maintain a game when the forwards are getting pounded. Well at least I haven't seen it yet. If we win the battle up front then Barrett will show his masterclass. Quite often his off running games can be a combination of our forwards being off the notch and the D of the other team, get the forwards right and he should be on his way. A lot of people criticised him for standing either too deep or short in the final last year but that was actually more forward fault. He basically had to. Of course the masterclasses would adapt and still make their back line efficient which he struggled with, I do maintain that he was injured in that one and Ardie being out was a game changer. This of course is why he won't start for the ABs however. The Brumbies were a good example of how not to play the Landers. They had the majority of pill in the first half and couldn't score at all. They got trapped into playing running, lateral rugby. Doesn't work. You watch the Chiefs game back, after we hit the panic button and calmed down from that about 60 minutes in, we started keeping it in the forwards in the middle of the park around the fringes for a good 5+ phases until we gave it to the backs, it worked and I reckon that's what we have to do against the Landers. They'll adapt to it better but I think too often we get caught up in just trying to make breaks quickly. Sure it works well in counter attack plays and we're bloody good at it but they don't always happen against the better teams. We have to actually make tries ourselves as well. I thought about your tactic of moving Jane back to 15 and whilst I see the premise behind it, I don't think it'd work. Cut out the fact he's past his prime, it means Woodward starts at 14. I don't like it. Woodward's not bad but against the Lander's he will be. He's poor under the high ball and I reckon he's struggle to contain Osbourne. Just lacks a bit of awareness at this level on the wing (and even FB). For that reason we have to start Marshall. So Jane logically on the wing and Marshall at 15. Marshall is your solid do nothing wrong type player. He'll catch the high balls, pass or get tackled. He reads FB relatively well, he just won't open anything up. A more defensive minded player I guess from that sense. Only solution I see to moving Jane to 15 is bringing Proctor to 14 and then Halaholo in at 13. Imo though that's too risky in terms of the centres so won't happen. We really do miss NMS in situations like these. Our game plan could be totally different if he wasn't injured. I'm still thinking what the absolute best tactics are for us but do think we need to avoid the kicking battle and focus on a forward orientated game (or 60 mins at least).
[MENTION=2932]Hurricane[/MENTION] the odds have been released for the Canes v Landers game. The Landers slight underdogs at $2 (even surprises me). I'd suggest jumping on them now or their handicap if you were planning to. I'd have thought this one would be a $1.90 split odds. It'll probably get like that once the market starts hitting it hard.
Thanks will do with regards to your earlier post that is a very sound strategy you have outlined there and represents the canes best chance of winning. Well thought through analysis.
The tab site is giving me chest pains. I am hitting submit 25 times in a row and it won't take my bet. What a 3rd world web site. if something breaks on Amazon an alarm goes off at headquarters
Sounds like they'd be losing a lot of money from these issues. Does it do it both on their PC site and mobile site?
No in the end it just turned out to be a mobile site issue..they don't seem to care... Bet has been placed now - TAB only offering odds of $1.95
Interesting, that's neither here nor there though in small amounts. I'd suspect others will end up at those odds over the next few days. Another one that's tempting is the Chiefs at $1.65, I'd suspect that'll decrease over the next few days but I am weary of it. Tahs were terrible last week and losing Beale was huge. Problem is I'm not sure if Ngatai will be back or not. If he is those odds drop massively. The Chiefs actually played a complete performance last week (first time in quite sometime) but Folau looked lethal at 13 and feel Ngatai is needed to contain him. Tahs at home will be a whole another story as well. Usually I'd hit it expecting the market to pound the Chiefs but I just don't know if they'll pound it enough to sure bet it.
[MENTION=2357]Rego[/MENTION] http://www.superxv.com/franklin-starts-highlanders-hurricanes/ why isn't wheeler playing and how good is franklin
Tbh I wonder if it's something to do with Wheeler signing a contract off shore last week. Franklin's not bad but Wheeler is the logically starting lock. All I can think of is maybe he has an injury? He's not even in the 23. I reckon they should have started Squire over Whitelock too.
I was just about to put a bet on Landers by 13+ - but the Canes have all their superstars for this match. Some of them will have a point to prove too after missing out...
